So, does everyone understand why class balance in 3E sucks?
Now obviously, initiative plays a big role in level 1 duels where characters get downed in a single shot.
But even if he had won initiative he would have to make an attack roll - AC 12 with a +6 bonus (+1 BAB, +1 weapon focus, +2 strength, +2 for charging at least 10 feet)
so a roll of 1-5 would have missed (25%) or 75% to hit.
Then he would have to deal at least 8 damage to knock me down - he does 1d10+2 damage the +2 is from strength
so a 6 or better on a 1d10 - 50%
so to win you need to make 2 rolls, one with a 75% chance of happening and another with a 50% chance of happening.
so according to the probability calculator you have a 37.5% chance of killing me if you won initiative.
Also I just realized you were a dwarf so you only need a 14 or better on the save. But that's only one roll and you only had a 35% chance of making it.